Uruguay vs Russia

Uruguay and Russia are already through to the World Cup round of 16, but there’s still one more thing left to decide: A group stage winner. The two squads face off on Monday in their final group stage match, where Russia wins the group if it avoids defeat. Uruguay has to win the game to finish in first place.

Russia and Uruguay face off with first place in Group A on the line on Monday at 10 a.m. ET at the 2018 World Cup. According to the World Cup odds, this match is about as even as you’ll see. Uruguay is posted at +165 on the money line, meaning you would need to wager $100 on a Uruguay victory to win $165. Russia is +190, while a draw is +200. The Over-Under on total goals scored is 2. Both teams are 2-0-0 in pool play and have clinched berths in the Knockout Stage, but critical bracket placement will be determined based on the result of this fixture.

Before you enter your 2018 World Cup picks, you have to see what European football expert David Sumpter has to say. Sumpter is an applied mathematician who wrote “Soccermatics,” a book that explains how math works inside the sport. Together with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.

The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In nearly three seasons since its inception, the Soccerbot is up an incredible 1,800 percent on bookmakers’ closing odds.

The Soccerbot already called Brazil-Switzerland playing to a draw (+360), Argentina-Iceland ending in a draw (+385) and Iran upsetting Morocco (+275), just to name a few of its big wins. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, Soccerbot has digested the film, crunched the numbers and broken down every single player for Russia and Uruguay. It has released a very strong money-line pick, which it’s sharing over at SportsLine.

The model knows Russia wasn’t supposed to be in this position. It wasn’t supposed to win a single game, let alone two. But the world’s 70th-ranked team, which only qualified because it’s the host team, shocked the world with a 5-0 rout of Saudi Arabia to open the 2018 World Cup and notched a 3-1 win over Egypt on Tuesday.

The Russians, who hadn’t won an international match in more than seven months, have the World Cup’s top goal differential.

Uruguay, the only team in this group ranked better than 45th in the world (14th), was the heavy favorite in Group A. But, it only managed to escape with 1-0 victories against Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Luis Suarez, one of football’s top forwards, scored his 52nd goal in his 100th match for his home nation against Saudi Arabia. The squad is looking for a repeat of 2010, when it advanced to the semifinals.